Primary aluminum markets in China are set to continue to witness surplus supply in 2024, as the rate of production would outpace consumption, sources and analysts said.
消息人士和分(fēn)析师预计：2024年中國(guó)原铝继续呈现供应过剩的局面，因為(wèi)生产速度将超过消费量。
However, output cuts in Yunnan, China's major aluminum hub, could emerge as a "wild card" in 2024, which could impact total aluminum supply in the case of worsening power shortages that would lead to more capacity curbs, according to industry experts.
然而，据行业专家称，中國(guó)主要铝中心云南的减产可(kě)能(néng)会在2024年成為(wèi)“不确定因素”。这可(kě)能(néng)会影响铝供应总量，因為(wèi)電(diàn)力短缺加剧，将导致更多(duō)的产能(néng)限制。
Despite this situation, sources said they expect profit margins of Chinese smelters to remain healthy, as oversupply continues to weigh on domestic alumina prices while rising bauxite imports relieve raw material supply pressure in the domestic market.
尽管存在这种情况，但消息人士表示，他(tā)们预计中國(guó)冶炼厂的利润率将保持健康状态。因供应过剩继续打压國(guó)内氧化铝价格，而铝土矿进口增加缓解了國(guó)内市场的原材料供应压力。
The Platts China Domestic Alumina Daily assessment stood at Yuan 3,000/mt ($421/mt) ex-works Shanxi on Dec. 21, about 0.16% higher from the year-ago level. Platts is a part of S&P Global Commodity Insights.
根据普氏能(néng)源资讯，12月21日，中國(guó)國(guó)产氧化铝日估价為(wèi)3,000元/吨（421美元/吨）山(shān)西出厂价，较去年同期上涨约0.16%。
There is limited new capacity set to come on stream in 2024, with established primary aluminum capacity already close to the national capacity ceiling of around 45 million mt/year, sources said.
消息人士称，2024年投产的新(xīn)产能(néng)有(yǒu)限，已建立的原铝产能(néng)已经接近全國(guó)约4,500万吨/年的产能(néng)上限。
Most of the new projects were capacity transfers based on capacity replacement policies or those obtained quotas subjecting to certain special policies.
大多(duō)数新(xīn)项目是基于产能(néng)置换政策的产能(néng)转移，或者是受某些特殊政策约束的配额。
Russian aluminum is set to dominate China's import markets amid Russia's war with Ukraine, keeping Chinese imports at elevated levels, market sources said. Meanwhile, China's aluminum exports are expected to see a decline due to a slower recovery in overseas demand, they said.
市场消息人士称，在俄罗斯与乌克兰的战争中，俄罗斯铝将主导中國(guó)的进口市场，使中國(guó)的进口保持在较高水平。与此同时，他(tā)们表示，由于海外需求复苏放缓，预计中國(guó)铝出口将出现下降。
来源：普氏能(néng)源资讯 電(diàn)解铝编译、整理(lǐ)
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